In using regression analysis for making predictions what are the assumptions involved
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Quantitative Methods
Case Studies
Multi Criteria Decision Making (20
Marks)
MCDA. (multi criteria decision
analysis) is considered to be one of the fastest growing research operations in
the last several years. The researcher focus towards MCDA led to development of
many different approaches and ways in the field. There are two types of
procedures: theoretical assumptions and
decision addressed type. This difference throws challenges to the prcedure of
choosing the most ideal method for the decision making problem. Most of the
time, the initial approach towards applying MCDA in the real world problems
relates to the set up of simple understanding Of the context and recognizing
the problem of decision. This step includes the ones• who make decisions and
other important participants who make important contributions for the MCDA
procedure by sharing their knowledge. The common insight of the decision
framework is received by knowing the goals of the decision making body
andrecognizing not only those people who make decisions but also those who face
the decision. • Dooley (2009) says that the first three steps take up more time
in the process of MCDA, particularly because of their qualitative features.
Assigning of comparative significant weights to the selected criteria is the
next step: These weights can be ascertained directly, for example ranking,
swing, trade off; or indirectly, for example ecentrality, regression and
interactive. Later, the DM has to give individual scores, considering his or
her views, to each of the recognized options according to the criteria which
seem vital. These scores show the decision of DM . related to spreading of each
substitute to every performance standard. The information which is attained is
maintained distinctively into performance template, which is also as consequence
matrix, options matrix, or just decision table. The next process includes abstract
of the information consisting of the performance matrix in the form of multi
criteria scores, for every possible plan. Mostly,
this is attained by combining the individual
scores of matrix so that total valuation of .each substitute which allows more comparison.
The groups of substitute ranked on the basis of all these scores. Finally, the
procedure can include a warm evaluation of the outcome to amendments in the scores
or criteria, to conclude the sturdiness of the result of MCDA. At the end, the
analysis and trade offs included in the respective choices are given to and
conferred with the DM. In many cases, the ultimate decision that DM takes, does
not match with the highest level of alternative, as they are more focused
towards the process of knowing the effect of each and every factor in ranking
of choices than in the exactness of the ranking. Also, it should be observed
that the generalizations are not used to of the outcome given by the process of
MCDA, and they only appropriate for the group of choices which were assessed.
Answer
the following question.
Q1.
What role does MCDA play in decision making? (Hint: MCDA is considered to be
one of the fastest growing research operations, these scores show the decision
of DM related to spreading of each substitute to every performance standard)
Q2.
What does MCDA stand for? (Hint: multi criteria decision analysis) Linear
Programming (20 Marks)
Lexicographic Goal Programming is used
to solve a series of Linear Programming Model. This programming is used wen . a
goal has to be attained on• priority basis. Revenue budgeting is being used to
decide budget instead of a specific system in budget.
Nevertheless, revenue budget lays
emphasis on the rising limitation of revenue while estimating budget. The
decision makers are limited due to the rising power of capital and also the
awareness of imminent restraints and fear of capital resources. The goal is to raise
the salary and allowance of the workers, to cut down the operating cost, to
raise the revenue expenses, to raise the capital generated internally, and the
cut down the overall budget. Some of the problems are: insufficient allocation
of funds and income, and• absence of importance of order. The insufficient
allotment occurred as the quantitative allotment models were not used with power.
. It is seen that the allotment of capital were not being used in the
right" way as a result the capital allotted to the labs is drawn •in the
maintenance of hostel. Various other changes also happen. In fact, the funds
allotted to the tertiary organizations are more often not managed properly. The
University of Owerri suffered and the progress of the institution came down.
There is absence of active teams for monitoring budget, and so the budget can
function in any manner. If the active teams to monitor budget were present, the
problem of mismanagement and the wrong use of it would come down. Sundaram
(1978) and Lee (1972) agreed that the various features of target programming
are, that it allows ordinal solution. According to Igniio (1978), this tactic
called Goal Programming, frequently symbolizes considerable progress in the
modeling and evaluation of the multi objective problems. This shows that this
area lets the systematic evaluation of a number of multi objective problems
which could include linear or non linearoperations in the incessant or separate
variables. This is most successful in the research area. The goal programming
developed due to Charnes and Cooper, who suggested that the model and method
for dealing with some linear programming problems where the contradictory
'goals of management' involed as limitations. Goal programming method has been
used for a number of programs. Goal programming technique has solved the
following problems: planning production in a ship repairing company, smoothing production
in 'just in time' production atmosphere. The problem occurs when the model does
not show the real inclination of the decision maker. Non inferior solution in
some cases many not be essentially better than the lesser solution mainly in
the case of natural resource problem.
Answer
the following question.
Q1.
What are the problems while estimating the budget? (Hint: insufficient
allocation of funds and income, and absence of importance of order, The
insufficient allotment occurred as the quantitative allotment models were not
used with power) A Network Rail (20 Marks)
The railways play an important role in
the economy and infrastructure of Britain. Not very many people travelled back
jn the 1920 as compared to present time, in spite of 50% reduction in raif
routes as compared to the 1960s. Rail is also used for transporting goods around
Britain. Rail proves to be• more eco friendly and safest means of
transportation as compa;ed to other vehicles so, not surprisingly, the number
of people commuting have gone 40% more since the past ten years. By 2034, this
figure can go up. The work of network rail has to look after the tracks,
bridges and tunnels which comprises of the British rail network. The
railwayinfrastructure is made up of signals and level crossings. It has to look
after the 20,000 mile long track and 40,000 bridges and tunnels. Britain's 18
main rail stations, from Edinburg Waverley to London King's Cross, are looked
after by the Britain rail system. Ten years ago, when the network rail took up
these responsibilities, • it had to face some challenges. The rail neork was
facing some problems. Trains were running late, the costs were too high and
there was shortage of assets in both the people and machinery. Due to these
issues, people had less confidence in the rail network. Ever since then, rail network
has aimed at sustaining operations to reduce the expenses. There has been 28%
reduction in expenses mainly because of conomy of scale. New tracks and
machinery have been bought, and there has been 90% rise in the rail
punctuality. Huge projects have been given on time an towards th budget, as a result
the confidence of the people has improved. Rail network has moved from 'find
and fix' to 'predict and prevent' policy. This has proved to be more cost
effective and competent and enabled in avoiding delay or obstruction for the
people in their travel. The rail network invested approx. 12 billion pounds
between 2009 and 2014, towards the rail network. Britain has the fastest
developing network in whole of Europe. By investing in people, the rail network
is investing in the future to. .Britain has the largest working personnel of
35,000 workers. It has people working in various positions, like, engineers for
maintenance and signaling to project managers. Each area offers an opportunity
to work. They also consist oi HR (human resources), IT (information
technology), and finance and customer service. Network Rail needs to employ and
keep capable engineers in order to get the work done. Presently, its engineers
are doing some oi the most stimulating projects in Europe. The projects include
HS2, which is the new super spted rail link between the north and south
Britain, and the project of London Crossrail. Some oi the biggest and busiest
rail stations are being upgraded, like, London King's Cross and Birmingham New
Street. The main focus of the HR of Network Rail is to recruit various personnel.
This not only deepens the culture of business but it also makes sure that it
can reach every talent. It offers training for every applicant, whether he is a
school dropout or a graduate, whether male or female, a continued flow of
appropriate talent is ensured to keep its long term project going. The company
abo gives many opportunities to its workers to receive recognized
qualifications, such as an exclusive
programme in post graduation, sponsoring the Master's Degree in project
management and trainee.
Answer
the following question.
Q1.
What were the initial problems that Network Rail of Britain face? (Hint: It has
to look after the 20,000 mile long track and 40,000 bridges and tunnels. Trains
were running late, the costs were too high and there was shortage of assets in
both the people and machinery)
Q2.
What is the new super speed rail link between the north and south Britain
called? (Hint: HS2)
CASE STUDY (20 Marks)
The price P per unit at which a company
can sell all that it produces is given by the function P(x) = 300 — 4x. The
cost function is c(x) = 500 + 28x where x is the number of units produced. Find
x so that the profit is maximum.
Answer
the following question.
Q1.
Find the value of x.
Q2.
In using regression analysis for making predictions what are the assumptions
involved.
Q3.
What is a simple linear regression model?
Q4.
What is a scatter diagram method?
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